Numbers Don't Lie
Sabermetrics Deep Dive
Sixty-eight games is the threshold at which a draft stops being a hypothesis and starts being an indictment. We have crossed it.
The World League of Baseball has produced enough innings, plate appearances, and groundballs to render judgment on the choices made in March. Some have been validated. Some have been refuted. And a few—the ones that matter most—have been quietly transformed by the simulation into something the draft sheet never anticipated.
Iron Knob Explosions have constructed the league's best draft. Andrew Harris drafted Orel Hershiser in round three at pick #14, and the pitcher is now second in the league in ERA at 2.03, leading in quality-start percentage at .818 and complete games with five. Kevin Brown, selected in round 23 at pick #134, has produced a 9-1 record—the best win-loss in the WLB—with a 2.62 ERA and .219 opponent batting average. Will Clark has been the hitter's anchor, producing a 1.013 OPS against right-handed pitching. The rotation features four starters in the top ten in ERA. Iron Knob sits in first place at 43-21.
Rick Astleys, one game back at 44-24, built the league's second-best draft. Jeff Burris took Scott Garrelts in round seven at pick #40 to produce 8-0 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.13 WHIP—second in the league in ERA from a seventh-round selection. Wade Boggs, taken in round two at pick #9, is slashing .344/.439/.517 for a .956 OPS, second in batting average and first in on-base percentage. Bryn Smith leads the league in wins with eleven while maintaining a 2.86 ERA from round eleven. The only visible miss was Lou Whitaker in round five, demoted to the minor-league roster on April 22.
Nicaragua Crepe Wrappers built the third-best draft despite the headline miss. Bret Saberhagen, taken with the #3 overall pick as the first starting-pitcher selection, has produced a 3.69 ERA and 1.28 WHIP—fourth-starter numbers. But Roger Clemens at pick #10 leads the league in strikeouts with 91 and carries a 2.88 ERA. Don Mattingly leads the league in hits with 76 and carries a .310 batting average. Jimmy Key, selected in round 27 at pick #159, has the lowest opposing on-base percentage in the WLB at .271 with a 1.09 WHIP tied for first. Carp's team remains within range at 38-27.
Huanca Wankers sit fourth at 41-28 with a mixed draft. Howard Johnson at pick #5 has produced a .985 OPS from shortstop—the single smartest position-player selection in the entire draft. David Cone in round 18 produced 51 strikeouts and a 0.3 HR/9 rate before going to the injured list. But Lee Smith in round 12 has produced only a .643 save percentage with four blown saves, and Joe Carter in round eight has not appeared on any offensive leaderboard.
Knockemstiff Slap Daddies occupy third place at 42-26 with the league's most dangerous offense but a thin rotation. Kevin Mitchell, the #1 overall pick, has produced 27 home runs and 62 RBI—both league leaders—with a 1.065 OPS and .404 isolated power. Fred McGriff provides protection with a 1.017 OPS, and Bobby Bonilla leads the league in batting average at .383 and OPS at 1.172. But the rotation depends entirely on Nolan Ryan, who leads the league with 73 strikeouts and a 12.1 K/9 rate. Round six pick Mike Scott is on the injured list.
Fugging Honey Badgers rank sixth at 38-28. Jeff Montgomery produced 16 saves—most in the league—with a .941 save percentage and just one blown save in seventeen opportunities. Alvin Davis carries a .900 OPS, third in on-base percentage. But Doug Drabek in round 15 went 3-7 and landed on the injured list. Mark McGwire, selected in round 20 at pick #115, has been demoted multiple times and buried on the AAA roster.
Best pick overall: Orel Hershiser. He leads the WLB in ERA at 2.03, quality-start percentage at .818, complete games with five, and slugging percentage allowed at .323. He was drafted twelve picks after Saberhagen—an indictment of how the room evaluated 1989 pitching.
Best sleeper overall: Kevin Brown at round 23, pick #134. The gap between his draft cost and actual production—9-1, 2.62 ERA, .219 opponent batting average, 75.2 innings—is the widest in the league.
Worst pick overall: Bret Saberhagen at pick #3. The standard for worst pick should be measured by opportunity cost: Hershiser was available eleven picks later. So was Howard Johnson at pick #5. Carpenter spent the most valuable selection in the draft on a pitcher producing fourth-starter numbers—3.69 ERA, 1.28 WHIP.
The simulation does not know about Cy Young Awards. It only knows about the underlying pitcher. And sometimes the best player in your draft is in round twenty-three.