Numbers Don't Lie
Sabermetrics Deep Dive
Ten days ago I wrote that the pendulum swings back toward a team's underlying numbers. I was right about the physics. I was wrong about which pendulums were swinging and in which direction.
The Iron Knob Explosions own first place in the WLB at 30-15. Not the Rick Astleys, who I projected to emerge from this stretch alone atop the standings at 6-4. They went 3-6. The Knockemstiff Slap Daddies—a team I dismissed with a throwaway paragraph and an "if"—went 8-1 and sit two games back. There are now six teams within four games of first place instead of three teams separated by half a game. The pennant race didn't clarify. It detonated.
Iron Knob went 7-1 over ten days, outscoring opponents 48-20 across those eight games, and they did it almost entirely on the road—where they now stand 22-6, a number so absurd it almost defies Pythagorean logic. Consider: Iron Knob is 8-9 at home and 22-6 on the road. Their Lead-7 record of 28-1 is the best in the league, meaning once they get ahead, they choke you out.
Orel Hershiser carries a 0.97 ERA with a 7-0 record on the season, nine quality starts in nine outings, a 1.000 quality start percentage, and just 9.2 runners per nine innings, the best mark in the league. He's allowing 6.8 hits per nine and limiting opponents to a .211 batting average and a .265 on-base percentage. Kevin Brown sits at 2.73 ERA with a 7-1 record on the year, a .210 opponent batting average—the lowest in the league—and just 6.9 hits per nine, second only to Hershiser. Greg Maddux is 5-0 with a 3.02 ERA on the season, seven quality starts in nine outings, and a .778 quality start percentage. Tom Glavine opened the stretch by beating the Badgers 6-1.
Hershiser, Brown, and Maddux occupy three of the top five spots in opponent batting average and three of the top five in hits per nine innings on the year. None of them walk anyone—Brown averages 2.3 free passes per nine on the season, Hershiser 2.4, Maddux 2.5. Behind them, Rob Gordon leads the league with nine holds, and Glenn Davis has 11 saves with an .846 save percentage. Mike Stanton adds seven holds.
Add to that Will Clark's .381 OBP on the season, Rickey Henderson's league-leading 22 stolen bases (in 29 attempts), and Tony Gwynn's .339 batting average—third-best in the WLB—and you have three distinct offensive weapons supporting that rotation. Iron Knob's run margin has now ballooned to +73, best in the league.
I said Jeff Burris's club would go 6-4. They went 3-6. The damage came almost entirely in the Iron Knob series. The Astleys went 1-3 against the Explosions, getting outscored 24-15. They also dropped two straight to open the stretch against Chris Carpenter's Nicaragua Crepe Wrappers—losing 5-3 and 5-4 on consecutive days.
Their Trail-7 record, which I flagged at 0-13 as a warning sign of a team that cannot come from behind, is now 0-17. Zero wins when trailing after seven innings in fifty-one games. That is not variance. That is structural. Eric Davis's 65 strikeouts lead the league on the season, and while his 14 homers and .508 slugging percentage are impressive, the swing-and-miss profile is poison in late-inning rally situations.
Scott Garrelts remains unhittable—a 1.89 ERA, 6-0 record, 1.000 winning percentage, a .215 opponent batting average, and 41 strikeouts on the season. Bryn Smith has been solid at 7-3 with a 3.04 ERA and seven quality starts on the year. Tim Raines has 13 stolen bases and a league-leading 32 walks on the season, and Wade Boggs carries a .402 OBP on the year. The Astleys' run differential of +68 still looks strong on paper. The distribution of those runs—concentrated in blowout wins—tells a different story.
I projected Garth Graham's Fugging Honey Badgers at 4-6. They went 1-7. One win in eight games. The Badgers have cratered from first place to fifth, three full games behind Iron Knob, carrying a stretch in which they dropped seven of eight.
The head-to-head record I flagged at 4-0 against Huanca is now 8-0. Eight games, eight Wanker victories. Their extra-innings record sits at 1-3, their Trail-7 mark at 2-16. Losing Ramon Martinez—a pitcher whose caliber, across the league, wins at an .833 clip for other clubs—strips a rotation that is already leaking.
Alvin Davis remains Fugging's best offensive player—a .353 batting average, a .455 OBP that leads the entire league, a .526 slugging percentage, 10 doubles and 55 hits on the season. Lonnie Smith's .385 OBP and Dwight Evans's .398 OBP on the year give the Badgers three players who get on base at elite rates, yet the lineup scored more than four runs only once in those eight games. Jeff Montgomery's 13 saves in 14 opportunities on the season—a .929 save percentage, the best in the league—have been wasted because there's been nothing to save.
I projected Huanca at 7-3 and wrote that their underlying numbers are too strong for this skid to continue. They went 4-5. They beat Fugging four times, confirming the head-to-head dominance I identified. But they opened the stretch by dropping two to the Knockemstiff Slap Daddies—extending their 0-4 mark against Brett Houlberg's club, the worst head-to-head record any contender holds against another. Then Iron Knob came to town and swept three straight to close the window, outscoring Huanca 14-9 in those three games. The Wankers are now 3-5 against the Explosions on the season.
Kent Hrbek carries .578 SLG with 17 homers and 37 RBI on the season. Howard Johnson sits at .586 SLG with 14 homers and 29 extra-base hits on the year. Robin Yount leads the entire league with 64 hits on the season. David Cone carries a 2.21 ERA on the season, third-best in the league, with a .327 opponent slugging percentage and just 0.3 homers allowed per nine innings, the lowest rate in the WLB. Dennis Martinez is 5-1 with an .857 quality start percentage on the year.
But the Wankers are 4-6 over their last ten, they've lost three straight, and their once-excellent run margin of +63 has not translated into wins. Strip out the Fugging games (8-0) and the two computer clubs (9-1 combined), and Huanca is 12-18 against the rest of the league. Sometimes the model is right about talent and wrong about the schedule.
I gave Brett Houlberg's Slap Daddies one paragraph and an asterisk. They went 8-1 and are now the second-best team in the WLB by record at 30-19, two games back of Iron Knob, riding a 9-1 surge over their last ten. Going 8-1 against inferior competition still requires execution, and Knockemstiff executed with extreme prejudice, outscoring opponents 58-25 in those eight wins.
Bobby Bonilla is putting up a season for the ages: .390/.451/.730 on the year with 11 homers, 5 triples, 21 extra-base hits, and 31 RBI. His .730 slugging percentage leads the league by twenty points over Kevin Mitchell's .710. Mitchell himself has 23 home runs and 53 RBI on the season—both league-leading figures—with 32 extra-base hits and 42 runs scored. Ruben Sierra has 62 hits and 7 triples on the year. Fred McGriff's .405 OBP and 12 homers on the season give the lineup a fifth legitimate middle-of-the-order threat.
Knockemstiff has scored 295 runs on the season—25 more than anyone else in the league. Their run margin of +53 trails only Iron Knob (+73) and the Astleys (+68) among contenders. Nolan Ryan's 67 strikeouts and 12.1 K/9 on the season anchor the rotation. Their Lead-7 record of 26-1 is the second-best in the league. They're 4-0 in extra innings. Their 4-0 record against the Wankers is a head-to-head cudgel that will matter all summer.
I didn't write a single word about Chris Carpenter's Nicaragua club ten days ago. That was a mistake. The Crepe Wrappers went 8-1 over this stretch, storming to 27-20 and within four games of first place.
Roger Clemens has 79 strikeouts—the most in the league—with a 9.2 K/9 rate, a 3.39 ERA, and opponents hitting just .221 against him. Mark Langston adds 50 strikeouts and an 8.2 K/9 rate. Bret Saberhagen has 53 strikeouts with an elite 1.8 BB/9 and six quality starts on the year. Gregg Olson has 10 saves with a .909 save percentage on the season—third-best in the league.
Don Mattingly carries 63 hits on the season—second in the league—with a .312 average. Harold Baines leads the club with a .415 OBP, a .320 batting average, .497 slugging, and a league-leading five intentional walks on the year. Kirby Puckett has scored 41 runs on the season—second in the league—with 15 doubles and 62 hits. Roberto Alomar has swiped nine bases with just one caught stealing on the year, good for a .900 steal percentage. Kevin Seitzer carries a .414 OBP with a .313 average on the season.
Nicaragua is 6-2 against Huanca, 4-1 against Iron Knob, and just beat the Astleys twice. They are a legitimate fifth contender, and in a race this compressed, their presence changes every series.
The Rick Astleys' Pythagorean expectation was .692 against an actual .667. Their actual winning percentage has fallen to .608. The gap between expectation and reality didn't close—it inverted.
The Fugging Honey Badgers were at .692 actual against a .665 Pythagorean—positive variance I warned was unsustainable. Their actual has crashed to .596, almost certainly below their current Pythagorean now.
The Huanca Wankers were at .641 actual against a .676 Pythagorean. They've moved to .604. The regression I promised toward their expected level has simply not materialized.
The lesson: Pythagorean expectation is a powerful tool over 162 games. Over ten games, it is a suggestion, not a prophecy.
Six teams. Four games separating first from sixth. Iron Knob leads with the deepest pitching staff in the league—three of the top five ERA arms, a sub-one ace in Hershiser, and a closer-holds combination that suffocates rallies. Knockemstiff has the most dangerous lineup in the WLB and a 9-1 run that erased five and a half games of deficit. The Astleys still have the third-best record but are reeling, unable to come from behind. The Wankers have the talent but can't beat anyone outside their comfort zone. The Badgers are in free fall. And the Crepe Wrappers, at 27-20 with an 8-1 stretch, are the team nobody discussed two weeks ago that everyone will be discussing two weeks from now.
The pendulum swung back. It just happened to hit me in the face on the way.