Numbers Don't Lie
Sabermetrics Deep Dive
Kevin Mitchell of Knockemstiff won the MVP award decisively on the strength of a season that ends bar arguments. Sixty home runs. A .672 slugging percentage, 393 total bases, 97 extra-base hits, and 140.3 runs created—each the best in the league. He drove in 153 runs, one behind Eric Davis, started all 154 games, and tied for third in game-winning RBI with 17. Eight voters put him first, six put him second, and nobody ranked him lower than third.
Bobby Bonilla, Mitchell's Knockemstiff teammate, created 9.59 runs per 27 outs, the best of any qualified hitter, and finished 59.0 runs above average to Mitchell's 59.0. With positional adjustment—third base against left field—the gap widened to Bonilla 63.1, Mitchell 50.7. Bonilla hit .339 with 14 triples and still slugged .626. But Bonilla made 24 errors at third base and fielded .911, and the voters weighted that glove work heavily. Four voters agreed with a sabermetric case for Bonilla as the most valuable everyday player.
Eric Davis finished third with two first-place votes, leading the league with 154 RBI, 54 home runs, 150 games in center field, and 17 game-winning RBI for the pennant-winning Astleys. His 7.45 runs per 27 outs ranked lowest among the top four finishers, and his 175 strikeouts tempered his case despite the volume of damage done in a power-friendly park.
Howard Johnson drew one first-place vote from Huanca and deserves consideration. The fielding file lists him starting 151 games at shortstop—not third base—with 44 home runs, 126 runs scored, 38 doubles, and a 24-for-30 stolen base record. He created 129.3 runs, second in the league, and with full shortstop positional credit came out at 55.3 runs above average, a step ahead of Davis and a clear step behind Mitchell and Bonilla. He had only 9 game-winning RBI, a reflection of the men batting in front of him rather than a reflection of his value.
Roger Clemens of Nicaragua won the Cy Young in a near-sweep, drawing 14 of 16 first-place votes. He led the league in ERA at 2.58, innings with 227.0, runs-created ERA at 2.73, component ERA at 2.77, quality-start percentage at .742, and opponents' OPS at .607. He was second in strikeouts with 207, threw seven complete games and three shutouts, and of the runners he left on base, only one scored. He saved 62.1 runs against league average, and the next-best pitcher in the league was 22 runs behind him.
Bert Blyleven drew two first-place votes with a legitimate case. He led the league with six shutouts—twice as many as anyone else—tied for the lead with eight complete games, walked only 1.8 per nine, and notched 29 double-play grounders, also the league high. His 2.88 RCERA ranks second only to Clemens, and on the component version of runs saved he came within nine runs. Clemens simply did all of that over almost 22 more innings while striking out more than twice as many.
The Astleys' three pitchers—Scott Garrelts, Bryn Smith, and Jose DeLeon—combined for 59 wins and divided the vote for third, fourth, and fifth. DeLeon had the best components at 2.92 component ERA and 3.01 RCERA, though his .233 average on balls in play was the league's lowest. Garrelts held right-handed hitters to a .533 OPS, the best in the league, and received 6.3 runs of support per start. Smith walked 1.8 per nine and pitched to his peripherals almost exactly.
Jeff Russell of the Rick Astleys won Best Closer decisively, drawing 9 first-place votes to Dennis Eckersley's 5. Russell allowed 1.88 ERA in 91 innings with 50 hits and 18 walks for a 0.75 WHIP and 1.44 RCERA—the best of any pitcher in the league with more than 30 innings. He finished games 24 times and came in with 28 inherited runners, allowing only 5 of them to score for a .179 rate second-best among regular relievers. He saved 32.3 runs against league average.
Russell's only weakness was his save record: 5 saves in 13 chances with 4 blown. A setup man gets charged with save opportunities in the seventh and eighth innings that a closer never sees, but those are still opportunities. Eckersley countered with six walks in 92.2 innings, a 14.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio, a 1.29 component ERA slightly better than Russell's 1.41, and 24 saves in 26 chances. His 2.62 ERA was hurt by 12 home runs.
Mark Davis led the league with 36 saves in 40 chances but finished fourth. He walked 4.5 per nine, threw 11 wild pitches, allowed 1.42 baserunners per inning, and relied heavily on allowing only three home runs for his 2.37 ERA. Jeff Montgomery of Fugging, with 28 saves in 30 chances and 107 strikeouts in 95 innings, drew first-place votes from Huanca and Fugging and finished third.
Iron Knob owner Andrew Harris hit .556/.639/.883 with 114 hits in 205 at-bats, 46 walks, 10 intentional walks (tied for the league lead), and 117.2 runs created while making exactly 100 outs. That is 31.6 runs per 27 outs, more than three times Bonilla's rate and 98.5 runs above average—roughly 60 percent more than Bonilla. He made 44 starts, mostly in right field, and came to the plate 252 times—a little more than a third of a full-time player's 650 plate appearances. Two voters placed him on their ballot; an Oak Ridge writer put him fourth and an Iron Knob writer put him fifth. He finished ninth with 32 points, and most voters treated his limited role and sample size as disqualifying.
Howard Johnson and Kevin Mitchell swept their positions unanimously. Bobby Bonilla won third base by a single vote from Wade Boggs. Ryne Sandberg was unanimous at second base. At first base, Fred McGriff prevailed over Alvin Davis and Will Clark, creating 42.6 runs above average to Davis's 35.8 and Clark's 31.1. Clark had the most volume with 699 PA, 105 RBI, and the league's most game-winning RBI with 19.
In the outfield, Mitchell and Eric Davis appeared on every ballot. The third spot went to Lonnie Smith at .320/.403/.559 with 8.33 runs per 27 outs, ahead of Rickey Henderson's 6.72. Jack Clark won designated hitter over Randy Milligan, creating 70.0 runs to Milligan's 68.9, though Danny Tartabull of the Rick Astleys hit 11.56 runs per 27 outs in a platooned role.