THE TRADE DEADLINE COLUMN I PROMISED, AVOIDED, PROMISED AGAIN, AVOIDED AGAIN, AND AM NOW WRITING WHILE THE WORLD CUP IS ON
Right now — right this very second — the World Cup is happening. The actual World Cup. The one with real grass and real people and real countries and Messi breaking the all-time World Cup goals record and Mbappé doing things with a soccer ball that should require a permit. The group stage is wrapping up. There are matches being played today, June 27th, in actual stadiums, in front of actual crowds, across three actual countries, with actual stakes that affect actual geopolitics.
I am writing about a simulated baseball trade deadline.
For a league run by six men in their fifties who went to high school together in Tennessee.
I threw up in my mouth a little. Let's go.
THE THING ABOUT PROMISING COLUMNS YOU DON'T WANT TO WRITE
I have been promising — or, more accurately, threatening — a trade deadline column since Column Two. I referenced it at the end of that column the way a doctor references "further testing" when they don't want to alarm you. I mentioned it again in Column Three. Both times I assumed my editors would lose interest, or the simulation would crash, or a meteor would hit the server rack, or I would develop a selective amnesia that erased only the words "Iron Knob" from my vocabulary.
None of these things happened.
The editors did not lose interest. The simulation did not crash. The server rack persists. And here I am, on the last day of the World Cup group stage, writing a trade analysis for a league where Bobby Bonilla is hitting .359 and the commissioner 3D prints Dungeons & Dragons figurines.
I also want to acknowledge something about the World Cup that is relevant to this column, because apparently everything in my life now circles back to the WLB. Chris Carpenter, the Discipleship Pastor, the manager of the Nicaragua Crepe Wrappers, the man who once unleashed the full uncensored English vocabulary during church-league basketball practice in front of Coach Burris — that man apparently also played youth soccer growing up. And by "played," I mean he accumulated yellow cards at a rate that would make Sergio Ramos raise an eyebrow. His high school friends remember it differently, of course. They don't remember yellow cards. They remember red cards. Multiple red cards. The future minister of God, the man who now leads small groups in discipleship and spiritual growth, was apparently getting sent off in youth soccer matches with the regularity of a man who had not yet found the Lord but had definitely found the referee's last nerve.
These are the formative experiences that produced the Nicaragua Crepe Wrappers. I need you to understand that.
THE CURRENT STANDINGS, BECAUSE CONTEXT MATTERS EVEN WHEN NOTHING ELSE DOES
Two things jump out immediately.
First: the Iron Knob Explosions are 10-0 in their last ten games and on an eleven-game winning streak. Andrew Harris — the Children's Theatre CEO, the certified black belt, the co-founder of the Milk Carton Babies, the man who has not made a single roster transaction since March, the man who may or may not also be a mysterious AirBnB co-host named Chad — is on the hottest streak in the league despite having done nothing. His team is on an eleven-game winning streak and he has made zero moves. Eleven wins. Zero moves. This is the trade deadline column and the first team I have to discuss is a team whose manager's entire trade philosophy is "no." The simulation is mocking me.
Second: Jeff Burris's lead has shrunk from seven games in my last column to four. The pharmaceutical attorney's closing argument is being cross-examined.
THE RICK ASTLEYS (81-33, 1st Place) — Jeff Burris, Chief Legal Officer
Jeff Burris has the best record in the league, a +298 run differential that is nearly twice the next-closest human team, and a pitching staff that includes Bryn Smith (17-3, 2.94 ERA), Scott Garrelts (15-4, 3.15 ERA), and Jose DeLeon (14-3, 3.50 ERA) — the three winningest pitchers in the entire WLB, all on the same roster, all pitching like men who know their manager bills by the hour and they'd better not waste his time.
Dennis Eckersley has 21 saves and a 2.20 ERA and is doing what Dennis Eckersley does, which is show up in the ninth inning, throw strikes, and leave. The roster is deep. The pitching is elite. Eric Davis leads the entire league with 46 home runs and 135 RBIs — a .306 average and a 1.016 OPS. Wade Boggs is hitting .323. Tim Raines is hitting .296 with 36 stolen bases at a 90% success rate, which is the kind of efficiency that makes Jeff Burris's in-house attorney heart sing.
But — and there is always a but with Jeff Burris — the Astleys just dropped a game to snap a streak. The team that was cruising is now only four games up with the Iron Knob Explosions roaring up behind them on an eleven-game tear.
Trade needs: Jeff doesn't need much, which is the most Jeff Burris sentence I've ever written. Greg Gagne is hitting .258 at shortstop with 15 errors. The honest truth is that Jeff Burris's biggest trade need is the same thing it's been his entire life: someone to tell him it's okay to relax. The filing is done, Jeff. The brief is submitted. You have the three winningest pitchers in the league.
He will make a trade anyway. He always does. The man cannot stop tinkering.
I threw up in my mouth a third time.
THE IRON KNOB EXPLOSIONS (78-38, 2nd Place) — Andrew Harris, Children's Theatre CEO, Black Belt, Possible Chad
Andrew Harris's team is on an eleven-game winning streak. His roster has not changed since March. He has not logged in. He has not made a single transaction. He is, near as anyone can determine, currently directing a summer production of something at his Children's Theatre — sorry, "Theatre," with the "-re," because colonialism dies hard when you're staging truncated fairy tales for parents filming vertically — and the Iron Knob Explosions are 10-0 in their last ten games without him.
The WLB named them Team of the Week. Chuck Finley was named Pitcher of the Week after throwing seven scoreless innings. The simulation is not just running itself; it's winning awards for running itself.
The rotation is genuinely excellent. Hershiser (13-5, 3.46 ERA), Brown (13-3, 2.95 ERA), and Maddux (13-3, 3.25 ERA) each have 13 wins — three aces on the same staff, managed by a man who is currently blocking a children's production and has no idea any of this is happening. Blyleven (12-3, 2.90 ERA) is on the injured list. The offense has Rickey Henderson hitting .297 with 78 stolen bases — seventy-eight, the most in the league by a distance that would embarrass Usain Bolt — with a .400 on-base percentage.
Trade needs: The team needs a catcher. Benito Santiago is hitting .209 — point two oh nine — which is the kind of production that gets you pulled aside by the music director and told to stand in the back and mouth along. If Andrew Harris were a normal manager who logged in, he would see this. But he is not a normal manager. He is a man who founded a band whose primary product was action figures with human hair samples, and he's in second place with a catcher hitting .209.
THE KNOCKEMSTIFF SLAP DADDIES (72-46, 3rd Place) — Brett Houlberg, DVM, Commissioner, 3D Printer of Halflings
Brett Houlberg's Slap Daddies are 3-7 in their last ten and just lost a series to Jeff Burris's Astleys. The Slap Daddies are eleven games back and the offense that was supposed to carry them to the promised land is carrying them to a respectable but uninspiring third place.
The offense is still absurd — objectively, mathematically, historically absurd. The Slap Daddies lead the entire league in team batting average at .296 and have smashed 181 home runs. Bobby Bonilla is hitting .359 with 25 home runs and 90 RBIs — the best average in the league, an OPS of 1.103 that would make Ted Williams nod in grudging approval. Kevin Mitchell has 43 home runs and 112 RBIs. This lineup is a wood chipper with a roster.
So why are they 3-7 in their last ten?
The pitching. The pitching is the answer and it has always been the answer. The team ERA is 4.28 — second-worst among the human-managed teams. Nolan Ryan leads the entire league with 171 strikeouts, which sounds dominant until you remember that Ryan has also walked 70 batters, which is the most walks by any starter in the league, because Nolan Ryan's relationship with the strike zone has always been a negotiation rather than a commitment. John Smiley is 9-8 with a 5.76 ERA. John Smoltz is 6-8 with a 5.34 ERA.
And then there's the defense. The Knockemstiff Slap Daddies have committed 100 errors this season — one hundred — the most of any human-managed team, fielding at .976. One hundred errors. Brett Houlberg's team out-hits everyone and out-fumbles everyone.
Trade needs: Brett needs pitching. Desperately, immediately, with the urgency of a veterinarian whose patient is coding on the table. The offense is the best in the league. If Brett could acquire a mid-rotation starter to replace the Smiley-Smoltz crater at the back of his rotation, the Slap Daddies could turn that offensive firepower into actual wins instead of exciting losses. He also needs a shortstop who can catch the ball. A hundred errors, Brett. A hundred.
I threw up in my mouth a fourth time.
THE FUGGING HONEY BADGERS (66-51, 4th Place) — Garth Graham, Radiologist, Chief of Staff, Lead in Kiss Me Kate
Garth Graham's Honey Badgers are 7-3 in their last ten, which is good, and 16.5 games out of first, which is the radiological equivalent of a scan that shows improvement but also shows that the tumor is still very much there.
The offense has Lonnie Smith hitting .313 with 24 home runs and a .938 OPS. Alvin Davis is at .325 with a .429 on-base percentage — one of the best pure hitters in the simulation — but is currently on the injured list (returns August 20), which is the worst possible timing for a team trying to claw its way back into relevance.
The pitching is the problem and it has been the problem all season. The team ERA is 4.68 — the worst among the human-managed teams. Doug Drabek is 5-14 with a 6.57 ERA. Greg Hurst is 7-9 at 5.89. Kirk McCaskill is 7-6 at 5.95. The starting rotation beyond Mike Moore (9-9, 4.02) is essentially a batting practice session with occasional flashes of competence.
Garth also demoted himself this week — his own player avatar, Graham, hitting .190, was sent down — and promoted pitcher Mike Bielecki. The man whose professional title is Chief of Staff at a hospital in Loudon, Tennessee, who once starred in Kiss Me Kate, looked at his simulated roster, found the anomaly on the scan, and the anomaly was himself. He demoted himself. This is the most diagnostically pure version of Garth Graham available: the radiologist read his own scan and didn't like what he saw.
Trade needs: Garth needs starting pitching, full stop. Drabek at 5-14 with a 6.57 ERA is an anchor tied to the team's leg. If Garth can find a deal for a mid-rotation arm — or package some of his bullpen surplus — the Honey Badgers could consolidate their recent improvement. But 16.5 games is a lot. That's not a rally. That's a resurrection.
THE HUANCA WANKERS (64-51, 5th Place) — Chris Broyles, Author, Christmas Baby, Strategic Visual Communicator
Chris Broyles's Wankers are 17.5 games back with a +96 run differential, which means they're a better team than their record suggests but not better enough to matter. The spaceship is not stopped but it is not arriving anywhere either.
Howard Johnson is the star of this team and it's not particularly close. Johnson was just named Batter of the Week after going 10-for-28 with five home runs and ten RBIs, and on the season he's hitting .299 with 37 home runs, a .629 slugging percentage, and a 1.001 OPS while playing shortstop. Shortstop. Not third base, where any reasonable manager would deploy a man with 37 home runs — the Wankers have committed 79 errors at a .982 fielding percentage, and having a power-hitting third baseman playing short is a defensive experiment that Chris Broyles has decided is the hill he will die on.
Robin Yount is hitting .322 with 157 hits. Ryne Sandberg is at .301 with 21 home runs. The offense has thunder — 182 home runs as a team, the most in the entire league, beating even Brett Houlberg's lumber yard by one.
The problems: Mike Greenwell is hitting .235. Joe Carter is at .188 in limited action. Craig Biggio is at .185. Ken Griffey Jr. is hitting .172 in limited action. Bo Jackson is hitting .251 with 131 strikeouts — one hundred and thirty-one — which means Bo is either hitting a home run or striking out, and the striking out is happening five times as often.
Trade needs: Broyles needs a shortstop. I cannot stress this enough. Howard Johnson is one of the best hitters in the league and he is playing a premium defensive position as though it were a suggestion rather than a requirement. If Broyles moved Johnson to third base and acquired an actual shortstop, the Wankers would immediately become a better team. Broyles also needs a bench upgrade. Carter at .188, Biggio at .185, and Griffey at .172 are producing at levels that suggest they've been miscast. Chris Broyles used to make action figures with a free Atomic Fireball and a lock of hair in the packaging. He knows what a value-add looks like. Joe Carter hitting .188 is not a value-add.
THE NICARAGUA CREPE WRAPPERS (64-52, 6th Place) — Chris Carpenter, Discipleship Pastor, NAIA Tennis, Red Card Enthusiast
Chris Carpenter's Crepe Wrappers are 64-52, 18 games back of first, on a one-game losing streak, and his roster is dealing with injuries the way a small-group Bible study deals with doubt: quietly, patiently, and with the understanding that healing comes in the Lord's time, not yours.
Don Mattingly is on the injured list until August 21 — he was hitting .298 with 145 hits before going down, and his absence leaves a genuine void. Tim Wallach is hurt until August 21. Jim Acker (10-1, 3.46 ERA — quietly one of the best relievers in the league) is out until August 22. That is three players on the IL for a team that is already thin.
Chris Carpenter is managing through it with the quiet perseverance of a man who once got red-carded in youth soccer and still found his way to the ministry. When your friends remember you getting ejected from soccer matches — not cautioned, ejected, sent off, walking the long walk past the sideline while your parents pretend they don't know you — and you grow up to become a Discipleship Pastor, you have undergone one of the more dramatic character arcs in modern Tennessee history.
The offense has Kirby Puckett hitting .321 with 164 hits and 39 doubles — Puckett is raking with the consistency of a man who understands that the base hit is its own sermon. Roger Clemens has 150 strikeouts and a 2.68 ERA — the best in the entire WLB. Gregg Olson has 22 saves with a 2.70 ERA.
Cal Ripken is hitting .222 with 9 errors at shortstop. The team has committed 85 errors total, fielding at .980, and Ripken is part of a defense that is not doing the pitching staff any favors. The Iron Man is hitting .222 in this simulation and producing 11 home runs and 60 RBIs that feel more like obligation than contribution.
Trade needs: Carpenter needs offense. Badly. The Crepe Wrappers have scored 592 runs — fifth among the humans — with just 100 home runs, the fewest of any human team. They win through small ball and pitching and the kind of fundamental baseball that would make Coach Burris proud, but the offense is a small-group Bible study that occasionally produces a run.
Carpenter has pitching assets other teams need: Acker (when healthy), Olson, and even Clemens would fetch a king's ransom on the trade market, if the Discipleship Pastor were the kind of man who trades his best player. He is not. He builds quietly. He manages patiently. He gets 64 wins out of a roster that probably shouldn't have 64 wins and he does it with the best pitcher in the league and Kirby Puckett and the kind of faith that doesn't show up in a box score.
THE TRADE MARKET: WHO DEALS, WHO DOESN'T, AND WHY THIS IS THE DUMBEST ANALYSIS I'VE EVER DONE
Here's the reality of the WLB trade deadline: there are six human-managed teams, two of which are genuine contenders (Astleys and Iron Knob), one of which is a fading third-place team with the highest-scoring offense and the worst defense in the league (Slap Daddies), and three of which are between 16.5 and 18 games back and operating in the space between "mathematically alive" and "spiritually deceased."
The natural trade is staring everyone in the face: Brett Houlberg has surplus offense and a 4.28 ERA and 100 errors. The bottom three teams have pitching assets — Clemens, Montgomery, Olson, Acker — and need offense. If these six men were actual general managers, the deals would make themselves. But they are not actual general managers. They are six friends from Tennessee who named their teams things that would get you escorted out of a branding meeting.
The most likely buyer is Jeff Burris, because Jeff Burris is always the most likely buyer. He will make a move. He will process the paperwork with the meticulous care of a Chief Legal Officer reviewing a pharmaceutical contract, and his team will be imperceptibly better, and he will still be looking over his shoulder at a man who set his lineup in March and went to a dojo.
Andrew Harris will not participate because Andrew Harris has not participated in anything since March. The man is four games out of first on an eleven-game winning streak and he is not here.
Brett Houlberg should sell pitching-starved contenders some of his offense in exchange for arms, but Brett is also the commissioner, and the conflict of interest is so pure that a pharmaceutical attorney would draft a memo about it. Jeff Burris is probably drafting that memo right now, at 2 AM, billing himself.
Garth Graham will look at the scan and see what he wants to see — although demoting himself suggests the radiologist is finally willing to read his own imaging results. Maybe there's hope.
Chris Broyles will create a strategic visual communication about his trade options and present it to no one. Howard Johnson is playing shortstop. The Core Pathways Model did not cover this scenario.
And Chris Carpenter will pray about it. And then he will manage another one-run game with Roger Clemens striking out nine and Kirby Puckett going 3-for-4, and the Crepe Wrappers will win or lose by a single run, and somewhere in Tennessee the man who used to get red-carded in youth soccer will close his laptop with the quiet acceptance of a minister who has learned, over the course of a lifetime, that the Lord works in mysterious ways and some of those ways are a .222 batting average from Cal Ripken.
A FINAL WORD, DELIVERED WHILE FRANCE PLAYS ON A SCREEN I AM NOT WATCHING
These are six men in their fifties who went to high school together. They played church-league basketball for Jeff Burris's dad. Two of them made action figures with human hair. Two of them were in Grease (roles still undisclosed; the silence is doing more work than the performances ever could). One of them got red-carded in youth soccer and is now a minister. One of them got frog-marched out of a Krystals while his friends kept eating. One of them snuck out to visit a girl and his car stalled on the way home. One of them runs the league he plays in. One of them is a certified black belt who has not logged in. One of them cannot draw.
And they named their teams — I will type these names one final time, and every keystroke costs me something I will never get back — the Rick Astleys, the Iron Knob Explosions, the Knockemstiff Slap Daddies, the Fugging Honey Badgers, the Huanca Wankers, and the Nicaragua Crepe Wrappers. And I am covering their trade deadline instead of watching the World Cup.
France just scored again. I know this because my phone buzzed. I did not look. I am here. I have always been here. The simulation doesn't care what I want.
I threw up in my mouth a fifth time. Five for ten columns. The average is stabilizing. The season is not over.
I'll see you next time. Or I won't. I've said that before. We both know how this ends.